CFTC Opens Prediction-Markets Rulemaking With 45-Day Comment Window

The CFTC said on March 12 that it is opening a formal review of how prediction-market contracts should be regulated in the U.S. The agency published an Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking, or ANPRM, asking for public comment on whether existing rules should be amended or whether new ones are needed for event contracts traded on prediction platforms.

According to the CFTC, the consultation asks market participants to weigh in on how statutory core principles and existing commission rules apply to prediction markets, which types of contracts may be barred as contrary to the public interest, and what the cost-benefit tradeoffs of a clearer framework might look like. The comment window runs for 45 days after publication in the Federal Register.

This matters because the legal status of political, economic, and other event-based contracts has become one of the biggest market-structure questions in U.S. derivatives. A formal consultation does not settle the issue, but it does move the debate from ad hoc enforcement and litigation toward a more explicit rulemaking process.

Why it matters

For traders, a clearer rulebook could decide which event contracts remain available, which face tighter limits, and how platforms manage listing standards, surveillance, and customer protections. That has direct implications for liquidity, contract design, and trading access.

What to watch next

Watch the submissions during the 45-day comment period and whether the CFTC signals a narrower or broader view of permissible event contracts. The key next step is whether the ANPRM turns into a proposed rule with specific product restrictions or approval standards.