EUR/USD Weekly Outlook — April 7-11, 2026

Where We Stand

EUR/USD closed last week near 1.0850, consolidating after a choppy March that saw the pair bounce between 1.0770 and 1.0930. The US dollar remains in a tug-of-war between resilient labor data and growing expectations that the Fed will ease policy in the second half of the year. Meanwhile, the euro has quietly gained ground on improved eurozone PMI readings and a slightly hawkish undertone from ECB officials.

The pair is trading just below its 50-day moving average, which has acted as a magnet over the past three weeks. Friday's non-farm payrolls came in broadly in line with expectations at 178K, which didn't give dollar bulls much to work with. Wage growth at 3.6% year-over-year continues to cool, adding to the disinflation narrative.

Key Support & Resistance

On the upside, the first meaningful resistance sits at 1.0905-1.0920 — this is where sellers stepped in twice in late March. A clean break above that zone opens the door to 1.0970, which aligns with the 200-day moving average and would represent a significant technical shift.

Support is layered. The 1.0800 round number has held on multiple occasions and aligns with a rising trendline from the January lows. Below that, 1.0770 marks the March swing low. Traders should watch for a potential false break below 1.0800 — the pair has a tendency to wick below round numbers before reversing.

Economic Calendar This Week

This is a data-heavy week for both sides of the Atlantic. On Tuesday, the ECB's Lane speaks on inflation dynamics — any dovish shift could weigh on the euro. Wednesday brings US CPI data for March, the single most important print of the week. Expectations sit at 0.3% month-over-month for core CPI. A hotter print would strengthen the dollar sharply.

Thursday features ECB meeting minutes from March, where markets will look for details on the internal debate around rate cuts. Friday rounds out with the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, which carries weight if inflation expectations move.

The CPI print is the swing factor. Everything else matters, but Wednesday's numbers will set the tone for the second half of the week.

Technical Setup

From a technical standpoint, EUR/USD is forming a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart — a pattern that typically precedes a directional breakout. The RSI sits at 52, neutral territory with room to move in either direction. MACD is flat near the zero line, confirming the pair's indecision.

The 4-hour chart tells a slightly more constructive story. A series of higher lows since mid-March suggests buyers are willing to step in at progressively higher prices. Volume has been declining during the consolidation, which is textbook pre-breakout behavior.

Bollinger Bands are squeezing on the daily timeframe — the tightest in six weeks. Historically, when EUR/USD Bollinger bandwidth gets this narrow, a 100+ pip move follows within 5-7 trading days.

Our Bias: Cautiously Bullish

We lean slightly bullish on EUR/USD this week, with a caveat around Wednesday's CPI. The combination of improving eurozone data, a neutral-to-dovish Fed trajectory, and the constructive technical setup points to a grind higher toward the 1.0900-1.0920 resistance zone.

The risk is straightforward: a hot CPI print would blow up this thesis and likely send the pair back to 1.0770. If CPI comes in at or below consensus, expect the breakout to the upside to finally happen.

Key levels to watch: 1.0800 support | 1.0905-1.0920 resistance | 1.0970 if breakout extends.